LSST Science Book, Version 2.0

A survey that can cover the sky in optical bands over wide fields to faint magnitudes with a fast cadence will enable many of the exciting science opportunities of the next decade. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will have an effective aperture of 6.7 meters and an imaging camera with field of view of 9.6 deg^2, and will be devoted to a ten-year imaging survey over 20,000 deg^2 south of +15 deg. Each pointing will be imaged 2000 times with fifteen second exposures in six broad bands from 0.35 to 1.1 microns, to a total point-source depth of r~27.5. The LSST Science Book describes the basic parameters of the LSST hardware, software, and observing plans. The book discusses educational and outreach opportunities, then goes on to describe a broad range of science that LSST will revolutionize: mapping the inner and outer Solar System, stellar populations in the Milky Way and nearby galaxies, the structure of the Milky Way disk and halo and other objects in the Local Volume, transient and variable objects both at low and high redshift, and the properties of normal and active galaxies at low and high redshift. It then turns to far-field cosmological topics, exploring properties of supernovae to z~1, strong and weak lensing, the large-scale distribution of galaxies and baryon oscillations, and how these different probes may be combined to constrain cosmological models and the physics of dark energy.Comment: 596 pages. Also available at full resolution at http://www.lsst.org/lsst/sciboo

Convective-scale perturbation growth across the spectrum of convective regimes

Convection-permitting ensembles have led to improved forecasts of many atmospheric phenomena. However, to fully utilize these forecasts the dependence of predictability on synoptic conditions needs to be understood. In this study, convective regimes are diagnosed based on a convective timescale which identifies the degree to which convection is in equilibrium with the large-scale forcing. Six convective cases are examined in a convection-permitting ensemble constructed using the Met Office Unified Model. The ensemble members were generated using small-amplitude buoyancy perturbations added into the boundary layer, which can be considered to represent turbulent fluctuations close to the gridscale. Perturbation growth is shown to occur on different scales with an order of magnitude difference between the regimes (O(1 km) for cases closer to non-equilibrium convection and O(10 km) for cases closer to equilibrium convection). This difference reflects the fact that cell locations are essentially random in the equilibrium events after the first 12 h of the forecast, indicating a more rapid upscale perturbation growth compared to the non-equilibrium events. Furthermore, large temporal variability is exhibited in all perturbation growth diagnostics for the nonequilibrium regime. Two boundary condition driven cases are also considered and show similar characteristics to the non-equilibrium cases, implying that caution is needed to interpret the timescale when initiation is not within the domain. Further understanding of perturbation growth within the different regimes could lead to a better understanding of where ensemble design improvements can be made beyond increasing the model resolution and could improve interpretation of forecasts

Predicting Responses to Psychedelics: A Prospective Study

Responses to psychedelics are notoriously difficult to predict, yet significant work is currently underway to assess their therapeutic potential and the level of interest in psychedelics among the general public appears to be increasing. We aimed to collect prospective data in order to improve our ability to predict acute- and longer-term responses to psychedelics. Individuals who planned to take a psychedelic through their own initiative participated in an online survey (www.psychedelicsurvey.com). Traits and variables relating to set, setting and the acute psychedelic experience were measured at five different time points before and after the experience. Principle component and regression methods were used to analyse the data. Sample sizes for the five time points were N = 654, N = 535, N = 379, N = 315, and N = 212 respectively. Psychological well-being was increased 2 weeks after a psychedelic experience and remained at this level after 4 weeks. Higher ratings of a “mystical-type experience” had a positive effect on the change in well-being after a psychedelic experience, whereas the other acute psychedelic experience measures, i.e., “challenging experience” and “visual effects”, did not influence the change in well-being after the psychedelic experience. Having “clear intentions” for the experience was conducive to mystical-type experiences. Having a positive “set” as well as having the experience with intentions related to “recreation” were both found to decrease the likelihood of having a challenging experience. The baseline trait “absorption” and higher drug doses promoted all aspects of the acute experience, i.e., mystical-type and challenging experiences, as well as visual effects. When comparing the relative contribution of different types of variables in explaining the variance in the change in well-being, it seemed that baseline trait variables had the strongest effect on the change in well-being after a psychedelic experience. These results confirm the importance of extra-pharmacological factors in determining responses to a psychedelic. We view this study as an early step towards the development of empirical guidelines that can evolve and improve iteratively with the ultimate purpose of guiding crucial clinical decisions about whether, when, where and how to dose with a psychedelic, thus helping to mitigate risks while maximizing potential benefits in an evidence-based manner

The Pine River Statement: Human Health Consequences of DDT Use

Objectives: Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) was used worldwide until the 1970s, when concerns about its toxic effects, its environmental persistence, and its concentration in the food supply led to use restrictions and prohibitions. In 2001, more than 100 countries signed the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), committing to eliminate the use of 12 POPs of greatest concern. However, DDT use was allowed for disease vector control. In 2006, the World Health Organization and the U.S. Agency for International Development endorsed indoor DDT spraying to control malaria. To better inform current policy, we reviewed epidemiologic studies published from 2003 to 2008 that investigated the human health consequences of DDT and/or DDE (dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene) exposure. Data sources and extraction: We conducted a PubMed search in October 2008 and retrieved 494 studies. Data synthesis: Use restrictions have been successful in lowering human exposure to DDT, but blood concentrations of DDT and DDE are high in countries where DDT is currently being used or was more recently restricted. The recent literature shows a growing body of evidence that exposure to DDT and its breakdown product DDE may be associated with adverse health outcomes such as breast cancer, diabetes, decreased semen quality, spontaneous abortion, and impaired neurodevelopment in children. Conclusions: Although we provide evidence to suggest that DDT and DDE may pose a risk to human health, we also highlight the lack of knowledge about human exposure and health effects in communities where DDT is currently being sprayed for malaria control. We recommend research to address this gap and to develop safe and effective alternatives to DDT.Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) was used worldwide until the 1970s, when concerns about its toxic effects, its environmental persistence, and its concentration in the food supply led to use restrictions and prohibitions. In 2001, more than 100 countries signed the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), committing to eliminate the use of 12 POPs of greatest concern. However, DDT use was allowed for disease vector control. In 2006, the World Health Organization and the U.S. Agency for International Development endorsed indoor DDT spraying to control malaria. To better inform current policy, we reviewed epidemiologic studies published from 2003 to 2008 that investigated the human health consequences of DDT and/or DDE (dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene) exposure. Data sources and extraction We conducted a PubMed search in October 2008 and retrieved 494 studies. Data synthesis Use restrictions have been successful in lowering human exposure to DDT, but blood concentrations of DDT and DDE are high in countries where DDT is currently being used or was more recently restricted. The recent literature shows a growing body of evidence that exposure to DDT and its breakdown product DDE may be associated with adverse health outcomes such as breast cancer, diabetes, decreased semen quality, spontaneous abortion, and impaired neurodevelopment in children. Conclusions Although we provide evidence to suggest that DDT and DDE may pose a risk to human health, we also highlight the lack of knowledge about human exposure and health effects in communities where DDT is currently being sprayed for malaria control. We recommend research to address this gap and to develop safe and effective alternatives to DDThttp://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1174

Scientific challenges of convective-scale numerical weather prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasing in resolution and becoming capable of explicitly representing individual convective storms. Is this increase in resolution leading to better forecasts? Unfortunately, we do not have sufficient theoretical understanding about this weather regime to make full use of these NWPs. After extensive efforts over the course of a decade, convective–scale weather forecasts with horizontal grid spacings of 1–5 km are now operational at national weather services around the world, accompanied by ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). However, though already operational, the capacity of forecasts for this scale is still to be fully exploited by overcoming the fundamental difficulty in prediction: the fully three–dimensional and turbulent nature of the atmosphere. The prediction of this scale is totally different from that of the synoptic scale (103 km) with slowly–evolving semi–geostrophic dynamics and relatively long predictability on the order of a few days. Even theoretically, very little is understood about the convective scale compared to our extensive knowledge of the synoptic-scale weather regime as a partial–differential equation system, as well as in terms of the fluid mechanics, predictability, uncertainties, and stochasticity. Furthermore, there is a requirement for a drastic modification of data assimilation methodologies, physics (e.g., microphysics), parameterizations, as well as the numerics for use at the convective scale. We need to focus on more fundamental theoretical issues: the Liouville principle and Bayesian probability for probabilistic forecasts; and more fundamental turbulence research to provide robust numerics for the full variety of turbulent flows. The present essay reviews those basic theoretical challenges as comprehensibly as possible. The breadth of the problems that we face is a challenge in itself: an attempt to reduce these into a single critical agenda should be avoided

A many-analysts approach to the relation between religiosity and well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N=10,535 participants from 24 countries). We recruited 120 analysis teams to investigate (1) whether religious people self-report higher well-being, and (2) whether the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depends on perceived cultural norms of religion (i.e., whether it is considered normal and desirable to be religious in a given country). In a two-stage procedure, the teams first created an analysis plan and then executed their planned analysis on the data. For the first research question, all but 3 teams reported positive effect sizes with credible/confidence intervals excluding zero (median reported β=0.120). For the second research question, this was the case for 65% of the teams (median reported β=0.039). While most teams applied (multilevel) linear regression models, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variables, the dependent variable, and the included covariates

A Many-analysts Approach to the Relation Between Religiosity and Well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N = 10, 535 participants from 24 countries). We recruited 120 analysis teams to investigate (1) whether religious people self-report higher well-being, and (2) whether the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depends on perceived cultural norms of religion (i.e., whether it is considered normal and desirable to be religious in a given country). In a two-stage procedure, the teams first created an analysis plan and then executed their planned analysis on the data. For the first research question, all but 3 teams reported positive effect sizes with credible/confidence intervals excluding zero (median reported β = 0.120). For the second research question, this was the case for 65% of the teams (median reported β = 0.039). While most teams applied (multilevel) linear regression models, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variables, the dependent variable, and the included covariates

Case Reports1. A Late Presentation of Loeys-Dietz Syndrome: Beware of TGFβ Receptor Mutations in Benign Joint Hypermobility

Background: Thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAA) and dissections are not uncommon causes of sudden death in young adults. Loeys-Dietz syndrome (LDS) is a rare, recently described, autosomal dominant, connective tissue disease characterized by aggressive arterial aneurysms, resulting from mutations in the transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ) receptor genes TGFBR1 and TGFBR2. Mean age at death is 26.1 years, most often due to aortic dissection. We report an unusually late presentation of LDS, diagnosed following elective surgery in a female with a long history of joint hypermobility. Methods: A 51-year-old Caucasian lady complained of chest pain and headache following a dural leak from spinal anaesthesia for an elective ankle arthroscopy. CT scan and echocardiography demonstrated a dilated aortic root and significant aortic regurgitation. MRA demonstrated aortic tortuosity, an infrarenal aortic aneurysm and aneurysms in the left renal and right internal mammary arteries. She underwent aortic root repair and aortic valve replacement. She had a background of long-standing joint pains secondary to hypermobility, easy bruising, unusual fracture susceptibility and mild bronchiectasis. She had one healthy child age 32, after which she suffered a uterine prolapse. Examination revealed mild Marfanoid features. Uvula, skin and ophthalmological examination was normal. Results: Fibrillin-1 testing for Marfan syndrome (MFS) was negative. Detection of a c.1270G > C (p.Gly424Arg) TGFBR2 mutation confirmed the diagnosis of LDS. Losartan was started for vascular protection. Conclusions: LDS is a severe inherited vasculopathy that usually presents in childhood. It is characterized by aortic root dilatation and ascending aneurysms. There is a higher risk of aortic dissection compared with MFS. Clinical features overlap with MFS and Ehlers Danlos syndrome Type IV, but differentiating dysmorphogenic features include ocular hypertelorism, bifid uvula and cleft palate. Echocardiography and MRA or CT scanning from head to pelvis is recommended to establish the extent of vascular involvement. Management involves early surgical intervention, including early valve-sparing aortic root replacement, genetic counselling and close monitoring in pregnancy. Despite being caused by loss of function mutations in either TGFβ receptor, paradoxical activation of TGFβ signalling is seen, suggesting that TGFβ antagonism may confer disease modifying effects similar to those observed in MFS. TGFβ antagonism can be achieved with angiotensin antagonists, such as Losartan, which is able to delay aortic aneurysm development in preclinical models and in patients with MFS. Our case emphasizes the importance of timely recognition of vasculopathy syndromes in patients with hypermobility and the need for early surgical intervention. It also highlights their heterogeneity and the potential for late presentation. Disclosures: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Atmospheric Science with InSight

International audienceIn November 2018, for the first time a dedicated geophysical station, the InSight lander, will be deployed on the surface of Mars. Along with the two main geophysical packages, the Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure (SEIS) and the Heat-Flow and Physical Properties Package (HP3), the InSight lander holds a highly sensitive pressure sensor (PS) and the Temperature and Winds for InSight (TWINS) instrument, both of which (along with the InSight FluxGate (IFG) Magnetometer) form the Auxiliary Sensor Payload Suite (APSS). Associated with the RADiometer (RAD) instrument which will measure the surface brightness temperature, and the Instrument Deployment Camera (IDC) which will be used to quantify atmospheric opacity, this will make InSight capable to act as a meteorological station at the surface of Mars. While probing the internal structure of Mars is the primary scientific goal of the mission, atmospheric science remains a key science objective for InSight. InSight has the potential to provide a more continuous and higher-frequency record of pressure, air temperature and winds at the surface of Mars than previous in situ missions. In the paper, key results from multiscale meteorological modeling, from Global Climate Models to Large-Eddy Simulations, are described as a reference for future studies based on the InSight measurements during operations. We summarize the capabilities of InSight for atmospheric observations, from profiling during Entry, Descent and Landing to surface measurements (pressure, temperature, winds, angular momentum), and the plans for how InSight’s sensors will be used during operations, as well as possible synergies with orbital observations. In a dedicated section, we describe the seismic impact of atmospheric phenomena (from the point of view of both “noise” to be decorrelated from the seismic signal and “signal” to provide information on atmospheric processes). We discuss in this framework Planetary Boundary Layer turbulence, with a focus on convective vortices and dust devils, gravity waves (with idealized modeling), and large-scale circulations. Our paper also presents possible new, exploratory, studies with the InSight instrumentation: surface layer scaling and exploration of the Monin-Obukhov model, aeolian surface changes and saltation / lifing studies, and monitoring of secular pressure changes. The InSight mission will be instrumental in broadening the knowledge of the Martian atmosphere, with a unique set of measurements from the surface of Mars